Working paper
Elicited macroeconomic uncertainty across the US and euro-area Surveys of Professional Forecasters, 1968–2026: every reported histogram pooled by the law of total variance, decomposed into stated individual uncertainty and disagreement, calibrated against realized outcomes, and scored (CRPS, pinball) against expanding-window benchmarks built from target periods already complete at each round. Embedded below is the current draft render; every number in it computes from the pipeline outputs at render time.
Revision 5 · 2026-09-19 · Max Ghenis